Agfarm Central NSW Market Update

There was no further rainfall to report last week for the northern parts of NSW, and once again it appears there is not much on the forecast for the midterm.

With reports of warmer weather heading into this week, growers in central NSW are hanging out for another hit of moisture to the crop condition.

Old crop markets have continued to come under pressure as traders holding long wheat stocks, originally destined for the export market, are now being dumped into the domestic market.

As a noticeable contrast, the Darling Downs new crop feed wheat market firmed on Thursday by about $10/MT and this is all down to weather.

Forecasters are spruiking this week to be the hottest August we’ve had since 2009, and with the majority of crop requiring additional moisture, the added stress of an early warm spell will downgrade new crop production estimates in the north once again.

The end of last week saw international futures finish lower, as the most recent USDA report somehow managed to find an additional 9,000,000MT of production expected from the Black Sea.

Investment funds were caught off guard with this increase, as were most participants in the grain industry, and as a result we saw a decent amount of position liquidation across all CBOT grain contracts.

New crop chickpeas have stabilised in values for now, with fixed tonne bids still hovering around the low $700’s/MT delivered packer central west NSW.

It will be interesting to see how the new crop cereal market plays out this year. With good east coast production in the southern cropping belts and below average yields in the north, we very well could see a repeat of 2014 where Victorian tonnes made their way up to the Downs market.

Though, you’d have to think this will largely depend on what the export market in the New Year is like, how cheap long distance road freight becomes and how the 2017/18 sorghum sowing window plays out.